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Olshansky and Dossey [1] are making much too big a fuss about an article [2] that was not intended to be serious research. This article was published in the same spirit as the Canadian Medical Association article, Celestial Determinants of Success in Research [3], that demonstrated an association between certain Zodiac signs and the likelihood of having received the Nobel Prize in Medicine and Physiology. Rather than demonstrating the validity of Astrology, this article was intended to illustrate that

foraging through databases using contrived study designs in the absence of biological mechanistic data sometimes yields spurious results.

The Leibovici article was clearly an effort to show the limitations of research methods by an example where a randomized controlled trial (RCT) shows a result that is truly bizarre. The results of this study should force us to confront the weaknesses of the RCT rather than the limitations of bosonic string quantum mechanics.

Furthermore, Olshansky and Dossey ignore a far simpler explanation of the unusual results: fraud. I have no reason to believe that Leonard Leibovici would manufacture these findings for personal gain, but quite frankly, the possibility does need to be raised. There are more than a few examples of fraud in the medical field [4] [5] [6] [7].

The best protection against fraud, of course, is replication by an independent group. This replication has not been done, perhaps because most people recognized that the Leibovici article was not intended to be serious research.

Olshansky and Dossey call on all of us to be open minded about the possibility of retrospective effects of prayer. But if they are willing to abandon commonly accepted principles about the temporality of causes and effects, without first asking for independent replication of this unusual result, perhaps they themselves are being a bit too open minded.

[1] Retroactive prayer: a preposterous hypothesis? Olshansky B, Dossey L. Bmj 2003: 327(7429); 1465-8. [Medline] [Full text] [PDF]

[2] Effects of remote, retroactive intercessory prayer on outcomes in patients with bloodstream infection: randomised controlled trial. Leibovici L. Bmj 2001: 323(7327); 1450-1. [Abstract] [Full text] [PDF]

[3] Celestial determinants of success in research. Pollex R, Hegele B, Ban MR. Cmaj 2001: 165(12); 1584. [Medline] [Full text] [PDF]

[4] US research scientist found guilty of fraud. Dobson R. Bmj 1999: 319(7218); 1156. [Medline] [Full text] [PDF]

[5] GMC reprimands doctor for research fraud. Dyer O. Bmj 2003: 326(7392); 730. [Full text] [PDF]

[6] Consultant suspended for research fraud. Ferriman A. Bmj 2000: 321(7274); 1429. [Medline] [Full text] [PDF]

[7] Haematologist may face disciplinary action for research fraud. Tuffs A. BMJ 2001: 322(7288); 694c-. [Full text] [PDF]